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FWRG
Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)

Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
$17.91
Delayed price
upturn advisory
PASS
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)​
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)​
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • Pass (Skip investing)
Upturn Stock infoUpturn Stock info Stock price based on last close
*as per simulation
(see disclosures)
Time period over
  • ALL
  • YEAR
  • MONTH
  • WEEK

Upturn Advisory Summary

04/01/2025: FWRG (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Upturn Star Rating

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Not Recommended Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

AI Based Fundamental Rating

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Moderate Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, typically align with the market average, offering steady but unremarkable returns.

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit -12.56%
Avg. Invested days 36
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Star Rating Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance 3.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Profits based on simulation
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Last Close 04/01/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Small-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 1.04B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 57.27
1Y Target Price 23.45
Price to earnings Ratio 57.27
1Y Target Price 23.45
Volume (30-day avg) 761479
Beta 1.02
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 25.98
Updated Date 04/4/2025
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 25.98
Updated Date 04/4/2025
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) 0.3

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date 2025-03-11
When -
Estimate 0.0261
Actual 0.0485

Profitability

Profit Margin 1.86%
Operating Margin (TTM) 2.18%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 1.99%
Return on Equity (TTM) 3.27%

Valuation

Trailing PE 57.27
Forward PE 114.94
Enterprise Value 1819066546
Price to Sales(TTM) 1.03
Enterprise Value 1819066546
Price to Sales(TTM) 1.03
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.79
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 18.49
Shares Outstanding 60700100
Shares Floating 40653278
Shares Outstanding 60700100
Shares Floating 40653278
Percent Insiders 1.8
Percent Institutions 114.78

Analyst Ratings

Rating 4.45
Target Price 23.82
Buy 2
Strong Buy 7
Buy 2
Strong Buy 7
Hold 2
Sell -
Strong Sell -
Strong Sell -

ai summary icon Upturn AI SWOT

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

stock logo

Company Overview

overview logo History and Background

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 in Pacific Grove, California. It started as a single restaurant and has since grown into a national chain known for its breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings. The company went public in 2021.

business area logo Core Business Areas

  • Restaurant Operations: First Watch operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch name, offering a daytime-only menu focused on fresh ingredients and innovative dishes.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

Chris Tomasso serves as the Chief Executive Officer. The company has a typical corporate structure with departments such as operations, marketing, finance, and development.

Top Products and Market Share

overview logo Key Offerings

  • Breakfast: Includes classic breakfast dishes such as pancakes, waffles, omelets, and breakfast sandwiches. Market share is difficult to pinpoint exactly, but First Watch competes in the broader breakfast/brunch restaurant market. Competitors: IHOP, Denny's, Cracker Barrel, Snooze, an A.M. Eatery.
  • Brunch: Encompasses a variety of brunch-focused items, including avocado toast, breakfast tacos, and seasonal specials. Competitors: Snooze, an A.M. Eatery, Another Broken Egg Cafe, local brunch spots.
  • Lunch: Offers a range of lunch options such as salads, sandwiches, and soups. Competitors: Panera Bread, casual dining restaurants.

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The restaurant industry is highly competitive, with trends toward healthy eating, convenience, and unique dining experiences. The breakfast/brunch segment is particularly popular.

Positioning

First Watch positions itself as a premium daytime dining experience with a focus on fresh ingredients and a health-conscious menu. Their competitive advantage lies in their brand reputation and differentiated menu.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The TAM for the breakfast/brunch restaurant segment is estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars annually in the US. First Watch is positioned to capture a portion of this market through continued expansion and brand recognition.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Strong brand recognition
  • High-quality ingredients
  • Differentiated menu
  • Daytime-only focus
  • Loyal customer base

Weaknesses

  • Limited operating hours
  • Potential for higher labor costs compared to fast-food chains
  • Dependence on breakfast/brunch segment
  • Higher price point compared to some competitors

Opportunities

  • Expansion into new markets
  • Increased franchising opportunities
  • Menu innovation and development of new products
  • Leveraging technology for online ordering and delivery
  • Capitalizing on health-conscious dining trends

Threats

  • Increased competition from other breakfast/brunch restaurants
  • Fluctuations in food costs
  • Economic downturns impacting consumer spending
  • Changing consumer preferences
  • Labor shortages

Competitors and Market Share

competitor logo Key Competitors

  • IHOP (DIN)
  • Denny's (DENN)
  • Cracker Barrel (CBRL)
  • Snooze, an A.M. Eatery (private)
  • Another Broken Egg Cafe (private)

Competitive Landscape

First Watch differentiates itself through its fresh ingredients, unique menu, and daytime-only focus, giving it a competitive edge over more traditional breakfast chains. However, its higher price point can be a disadvantage.

Major Acquisitions

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: First Watch has experienced significant growth in recent years through new restaurant openings and increased same-store sales.

Future Projections: Analyst projections vary but generally indicate continued growth for First Watch, driven by expansion and brand recognition.

Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include new menu items, technology investments, and expansion into new markets.

Summary

First Watch shows strong potential due to its focus on fresh ingredients and the daytime-only segment. Its growth trajectory is promising, though competition and economic factors require careful consideration. The absence of dividends and reliance on a focused menu should be noted. Overall, the company is in a good position, with continuous expansion and menu innovation being key factors to watch.

Similar Companies

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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store

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CBRLratingrating

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store

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DENNratingrating

Denny’s Corp

$3.8
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DINratingrating

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Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • Company SEC Filings
  • Analyst Reports
  • Industry Publications

Disclaimers:

The data provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market share estimates may vary. Financial data is subject to change. Please consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.

About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

Exchange NASDAQ
Headquaters Bradenton, FL, United States
IPO Launch date 2021-10-01
CEO, President & Director Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Industry Restaurants
Full time employees 15000
Full time employees 15000

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.

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