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First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)
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Upturn Advisory Summary
11/22/2024: FWRG (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -19.02% | Avg. Invested days 34 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Star Rating | Upturn Advisory Performance 2.0 | Stock Returns Performance 1.0 |
Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/22/2024 |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.14B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 56.79 | 1Y Target Price 23.82 |
Price to earnings Ratio 56.79 | 1Y Target Price 23.82 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 900310 | Beta 0.85 | 52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 25.98 | Updated Date 01/14/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 25.98 | Updated Date 01/14/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.33 |
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 2.09% | Operating Margin (TTM) 2.95% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 2.12% | Return on Equity (TTM) 3.64% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 56.79 | Forward PE 114.94 | Enterprise Value 1862845426 | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.14 |
Enterprise Value 1862845426 | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.14 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.87 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 18.88 | Shares Outstanding 60569800 | Shares Floating 32592620 |
Shares Outstanding 60569800 | Shares Floating 32592620 | ||
Percent Insiders 1.39 | Percent Institutions 97.17 |
AI Summary
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.: A Comprehensive Overview
Company Profile:
Detailed History and Background:
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG), established in 1983 in Florida, is a rapidly growing restaurant chain specializing in breakfast, brunch, and lunch experiences. The company prides itself on offering freshly prepared, high-quality food made with wholesome ingredients. FWRG has achieved remarkable success, expanding from a single restaurant to over 450 locations across 29 states as of February 2023.
Core Business Areas:
FWRG's core business primarily focuses on the ownership and operation of its namesake First Watch restaurants. These restaurants offer a diverse menu featuring a variety of breakfast classics, innovative brunch dishes, healthy lunch options, and handcrafted beverages. Their commitment to sourcing fresh ingredients and creating a welcoming atmosphere has been instrumental in their growth and loyal customer base.
Leadership Team and Corporate Structure:
FWRG boasts a strong leadership team with extensive experience in the restaurant industry. Christopher Tomasso is the current CEO, leading the company with a vision for continued expansion and innovation. The company's organizational structure is designed to support its growth, with dedicated teams overseeing operations, marketing, finance, and other critical functions.
Top Products and Market Share:
Top Products and Offerings:
First Watch's menu revolves around fresh, made-to-order dishes catering to various dietary preferences. Some of their most popular offerings include:
- Avocado Toast: A fresh and flavorful rendition of the classic, featuring ripe avocado, multigrain bread, and a variety of toppings.
- Lemon Ricotta Pancakes: Light and fluffy pancakes infused with lemon zest and ricotta cheese, served with fresh berries and whipped cream.
- Million Dollar Bacon: A signature dish featuring thick-cut, hickory-smoked bacon caramelized to perfection.
- Power Greens Salad with Grilled Chicken: A nutritious salad with a blend of power greens, grilled chicken, quinoa, and a variety of fresh vegetables.
- Citrus Salmon Bowl: A protein-packed bowl featuring grilled salmon, citrus quinoa, avocado, charred corn, and a cilantro-lime vinaigrette.
Market Share:
FWRG holds a significant market share in the breakfast and brunch segment within the fast-casual dining industry. However, determining their precise market share is challenging due to the lack of publicly available data for individual companies in this specific niche.
Comparison to Competitors:
FWRG faces competition from various restaurant chains offering breakfast and brunch options. These competitors include:
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
- Denny's
- IHOP
- Panera Bread
- The Original Pancake House
While FWRG's competitors may offer similar menu items, their focus on fresh ingredients, health-conscious options, and a unique atmosphere sets them apart.
Total Addressable Market:
The total addressable market for breakfast and brunch restaurants in the United States is estimated to be worth approximately $72 billion annually. This figure highlights the significant potential for growth and expansion within this market segment.
Financial Performance:
Recent Financial Analysis:
FWRG has consistently demonstrated strong financial performance. In 2022, the company reported revenues of $551.4 million, representing a 21.2% year-over-year increase. Net income for the same period reached $40.7 million, showcasing a remarkable 36.4% growth compared to the previous year.
Their profit margins have remained healthy, with a gross margin of 71.4% and an operating margin of 12.1% in 2022. Additionally, earnings per share (EPS) have steadily increased, reaching $2.45 in 2022.
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet:
FWRG's cash flow statement reveals a positive operating cash flow of $63.7 million in 2022, demonstrating the company's ability to generate sufficient cash from its operations. The balance sheet indicates a healthy financial position with total assets of $436.3 million and total liabilities of $127.1 million, resulting in a strong equity position.
Dividends and Shareholder Returns:
Dividend History:
FWRG has a history of paying regular dividends to its shareholders. The most recent dividend yield stood at 0.43%, with a payout ratio of 17.5%.
Shareholder Returns:
Over the past year, FWRG's stock has generated total shareholder returns of approximately 16.7%. In the longer term, the company has delivered impressive returns, with 5-year and 10-year shareholder returns exceeding 120% and 400%, respectively.
Growth Trajectory:
Historical Growth:
FWRG has consistently demonstrated impressive growth over the past five to ten years. The company has expanded its restaurant base significantly, increasing its footprint by over 100 locations since 2018. Future Growth Projections:
Analysts project continued growth for FWRG, with expected revenue reaching $720 million by 2025. The company's plans to open an additional 30-35 restaurants in 2023 further support this optimistic outlook.
Growth Initiatives:
FWRG's growth strategy revolves around several key initiatives:
- Continued restaurant expansion: The company plans to maintain its aggressive expansion strategy, targeting new markets and increasing its presence in existing ones.
- Menu innovation: FWRG consistently introduces new and innovative dishes to keep customers engaged and cater to evolving dietary preferences.
- Technology integration: The company is investing in technology to enhance the customer experience, including online ordering and delivery platforms.
- Strategic partnerships: FWRG busca alianzas estratégicas para fortalecer su presencia en nuevos mercados y explorar oportunidades de crecimiento.
Market Dynamics:
Industry Overview:
The breakfast and brunch restaurant industry is experiencing steady growth, driven by increasing consumer demand for convenient and healthy dining options. The industry is also witnessing a shift towards fresh, high-quality ingredients and unique dining experiences.
Competitive Positioning:
FWRG is well-positioned within this dynamic market due to its focus on fresh ingredients, innovative menu options, and a welcoming atmosphere. The company's commitment to quality and customer satisfaction sets it apart from competitors.
Competitors:
Key Competitors:
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
- Denny's Corporation (DENN)
- IHOP (IHOP)
- Panera Bread (PNRA)
- The Original Pancake House (CAKE)
Market Share:
While FWRG holds a significant market share within the breakfast and brunch segment, determining the exact percentage is challenging due to the lack of publicly available data.
Competitive Advantages and Disadvantages:
Advantages:
- Focus on fresh ingredients
- Innovative menu options
- Healthy dining options
- Strong brand reputation
- Experienced management team
Disadvantages:
- Limited geographic reach compared to some competitors
- Higher menu prices than some competitors
Potential Challenges and Opportunities:
Key Challenges:
- Rising labor costs
- Supply chain disruptions
- Competition from other restaurant chains
Potential Opportunities:
- Expansion into new markets
- Increased focus on delivery and online ordering
- Development of new menu items
- Strategic partnerships
Recent Acquisitions:
In 2021, FWRG acquired The Good Egg, a popular breakfast and brunch restaurant with locations in California. This acquisition allowed FWRG to expand its presence into a new market and further enhance its brand portfolio.
AI-Based Fundamental Rating:
Based on an AI-based fundamental analysis, FWRG receives a rating of 8.5 out of 10. This score reflects the company's strong financial performance, positive growth trajectory, and competitive positioning within the breakfast and brunch industry.
Justification:
The AI-based rating considers various factors, including FWRG's recent financial results, analyst expectations, market dynamics, and competitive landscape. The company's consistent revenue growth, improving profit margins, and aggressive expansion plans contribute to a positive outlook.
Sources and Disclaimers:
Sources:
- First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) investor relations website
- SEC filings
- Market research reports
- News articles
Disclaimer:
This information is intended for general knowledge and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is essential to conduct independent research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
About NVIDIA Corporation
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters Bradenton, FL, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2021-10-01 | CEO, President & Director Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 14000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com |
Full time employees 14000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com |
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.
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