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First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)



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Upturn Advisory Summary
04/01/2025: FWRG (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -12.56% | Avg. Invested days 36 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance ![]() | Stock Returns Performance ![]() |
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Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.04B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 57.27 | 1Y Target Price 23.45 |
Price to earnings Ratio 57.27 | 1Y Target Price 23.45 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 761479 | Beta 1.02 | 52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 25.98 | Updated Date 04/4/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 25.98 | Updated Date 04/4/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.3 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2025-03-11 | When - | Estimate 0.0261 | Actual 0.0485 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 1.86% | Operating Margin (TTM) 2.18% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.99% | Return on Equity (TTM) 3.27% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 57.27 | Forward PE 114.94 | Enterprise Value 1819066546 | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.03 |
Enterprise Value 1819066546 | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.03 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.79 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 18.49 | Shares Outstanding 60700100 | Shares Floating 40653278 |
Shares Outstanding 60700100 | Shares Floating 40653278 | ||
Percent Insiders 1.8 | Percent Institutions 114.78 |
Analyst Ratings
Rating 4.45 | Target Price 23.82 | Buy 2 | Strong Buy 7 |
Buy 2 | Strong Buy 7 | ||
Hold 2 | Sell - | Strong Sell - | |
Strong Sell - |
Upturn AI SWOT
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
Company Overview
History and Background
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 in Pacific Grove, California. It started as a single restaurant and has since grown into a national chain known for its breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings. The company went public in 2021.
Core Business Areas
- Restaurant Operations: First Watch operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch name, offering a daytime-only menu focused on fresh ingredients and innovative dishes.
Leadership and Structure
Chris Tomasso serves as the Chief Executive Officer. The company has a typical corporate structure with departments such as operations, marketing, finance, and development.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Breakfast: Includes classic breakfast dishes such as pancakes, waffles, omelets, and breakfast sandwiches. Market share is difficult to pinpoint exactly, but First Watch competes in the broader breakfast/brunch restaurant market. Competitors: IHOP, Denny's, Cracker Barrel, Snooze, an A.M. Eatery.
- Brunch: Encompasses a variety of brunch-focused items, including avocado toast, breakfast tacos, and seasonal specials. Competitors: Snooze, an A.M. Eatery, Another Broken Egg Cafe, local brunch spots.
- Lunch: Offers a range of lunch options such as salads, sandwiches, and soups. Competitors: Panera Bread, casual dining restaurants.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The restaurant industry is highly competitive, with trends toward healthy eating, convenience, and unique dining experiences. The breakfast/brunch segment is particularly popular.
Positioning
First Watch positions itself as a premium daytime dining experience with a focus on fresh ingredients and a health-conscious menu. Their competitive advantage lies in their brand reputation and differentiated menu.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for the breakfast/brunch restaurant segment is estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars annually in the US. First Watch is positioned to capture a portion of this market through continued expansion and brand recognition.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong brand recognition
- High-quality ingredients
- Differentiated menu
- Daytime-only focus
- Loyal customer base
Weaknesses
- Limited operating hours
- Potential for higher labor costs compared to fast-food chains
- Dependence on breakfast/brunch segment
- Higher price point compared to some competitors
Opportunities
- Expansion into new markets
- Increased franchising opportunities
- Menu innovation and development of new products
- Leveraging technology for online ordering and delivery
- Capitalizing on health-conscious dining trends
Threats
- Increased competition from other breakfast/brunch restaurants
- Fluctuations in food costs
- Economic downturns impacting consumer spending
- Changing consumer preferences
- Labor shortages
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- IHOP (DIN)
- Denny's (DENN)
- Cracker Barrel (CBRL)
- Snooze, an A.M. Eatery (private)
- Another Broken Egg Cafe (private)
Competitive Landscape
First Watch differentiates itself through its fresh ingredients, unique menu, and daytime-only focus, giving it a competitive edge over more traditional breakfast chains. However, its higher price point can be a disadvantage.
Major Acquisitions
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: First Watch has experienced significant growth in recent years through new restaurant openings and increased same-store sales.
Future Projections: Analyst projections vary but generally indicate continued growth for First Watch, driven by expansion and brand recognition.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include new menu items, technology investments, and expansion into new markets.
Summary
First Watch shows strong potential due to its focus on fresh ingredients and the daytime-only segment. Its growth trajectory is promising, though competition and economic factors require careful consideration. The absence of dividends and reliance on a focused menu should be noted. Overall, the company is in a good position, with continuous expansion and menu innovation being key factors to watch.
Similar Companies

CBRL

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store



CBRL

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store

DENN

Denny’s Corp



DENN

Denny’s Corp

DIN

Dine Brands Global Inc



DIN

Dine Brands Global Inc
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company SEC Filings
- Analyst Reports
- Industry Publications
Disclaimers:
The data provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market share estimates may vary. Financial data is subject to change. Please consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters Bradenton, FL, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2021-10-01 | CEO, President & Director Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 15000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com |
Full time employees 15000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com |
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.
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