HELP & TUTORIAL

Upturn Advisories

Enhance Your Investment Strategy with Upturn's Additional Features

Upturn Gauge: Tracking Bulls, Bears, and Beyond

Analyzing the distribution of BUY and SELL advisories among stocks which are Large-cap or Mid-cap and rated Upturn 3 Star or higher reveals overarching trends in the U.S. stock market. This analysis helps identify whether the market sentiment is bullish, bearish, or anticipating a correction.

The Upturn Advisories graph features color-coded sections—yellow, blue, and red—that help investors quickly assess market conditions, indicating periods of recession, growth, or potential correction. This graph is overlaid on the S&P 500 price chart, offering a clear view of the U.S. market's performance.

Upturn's stocks/ETFs Chart

Upturn stock advisory chart for example, Apple Inc. (AAPL) in this case, provides a comprehensive visual representation of historical BUY and SELL advisories, helping investors evaluate past recommendations, market trends, and potential investment risks.

Key Elements of the Chart

1. Stock Information & Advisory Status
   • Stock Price: The latest delayed price for Apple Inc. is displayed as $229.86. This price is the last close price when the market closed the last trading day (which could be the previous day or Friday when the market closed)
   • Upturn Star Rating: The 4-star rating indicates Upturn’s assessment of Apple's investment quality.
   • Current Upturn Advisory: The chart displays a PASS recommendation, meaning Upturn.io does not currently recommend buying this stock. Other Upturn Advisories could be SELL which indicates to SELL the stock if holding it or STRONG BUY, NORMAL BUY or a WEAK BUY which indicates the strength of the BUY signal.
2. BUY & SELL Advisory Representation
   • Each "BUY" recommendation is marked by a blue dot on the chart.
   • A "SELL" recommendation is displayed with either a green or red dot:
     • Green dot: Indicates a profitable SELL, meaning the advisory resulted in a gain as per simulation
     • Red dot: Indicates a loss-incurring SELL, meaning the advisory led to a decrease in value as per simullation
   • The chart also highlights simulated profits and losses, represented above the respective advisories.
3. Profit/Loss Visualization
   • Vertical Bars (Blue & Orange):
     1. Blue bars indicate BUY and SELL advisories that resulted in a simulated profit.
     2. Orange bars indicate a loss-making advisory, showing where a SELL led to negative returns.
   • The chart displays percentage changes above the bars to quantify the simulated profit or loss for each trade.
4. Trend Analysis & Market Patterns
   • The stock price trajectory over the last two years is plotted, showing fluctuations in value.
   • Simulated trades allow investors to observe Upturn’s past performance and decision points.
   • Investors can use these insights to identify recurring trends, volatility, and potential risk areas.
5. Timeframe Selection & Data Exploration
   • Users can adjust the time period displayed on the chart by selecting ALL, YEAR, MONTH, or WEEK to analyze trends across different time horizons.
   • The "View more info" button enables users to explore deeper insights int

Investors are advised to consult the Disclosures section for details on the assumptions made in these simulations. While the simulations aim for directional accuracy, actual returns may vary due to market conditions and execution factors.

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Charts showcasing revenue by product segments and geographic regions, along with year-on-year growth, is provided for every stock, provides the user several key things:

1. Revenue Diversification and Concentration (Product & Geography):
   • Product Portfolio Analysis: It reveals the company's revenue streams and the relative importance of each product segment. Users can quickly understand if a company's revenue is heavily reliant on a single product or if it has a diversified portfolio.
   • Geographic Revenue Analysis: It also shows the distribution of revenue across different geographic regions, indicating the company's reliance on specific markets.
   • Revenue Concentration Risk: It highlights potential risks associated with over-reliance on a single product segment or geographic market. If one segment or region underperforms, the company's overall revenue could be significantly impacted.
2. Growth Trends (Product & Geography):
   • Year-on-Year Performance: It provides a clear picture of how each product segment and geographic region's revenue has changed over time. Users can assess growth rates and identify trends.
   • Growth Potential: It helps users evaluate the growth potential of different product segments and geographic markets, identifying areas where the company is experiencing strong growth or decline.
3. Business Focus and Strategy (Product & Geography):
   • Strategic Priorities: It reveals the company's strategic focus and priorities, both in terms of product development and market expansion. Users can see which segments and regions are generating the most revenue and likely receiving the most investment.
   • Business Model Insight: It provides insights into the company's business model and its geographic footprint, showing how it generates revenue across different markets.
4. Comparative Analysis:
   • Benchmarking: Users can compare the revenue performance of different companies within the same industry, both in terms of product segments and geographic reach.
   • Investment Decisions: This information helps users make informed investment decisions by understanding the revenue dynamics of each company, considering both product and geographic diversification and growth.

In essence, it gives the user comprehensive insight into the revenue health and business strategy of a company, considering both product and geographic dimensions, and allows them to perform detailed comparative analysis.

Watchlist, Robo-Portfolios and ETF Zone

Upturn.io's dashboard offers a suite of curated tools designed to enhance your investment experience.

The Watchlist feature allows you to monitor your preferred stocks and ETFs, providing real-time advisories and performance updates.

With Robo-Portfolios, you can create and manage personalized collections of stocks and ETFs, either through automated sampling or by selecting assets that align with your specific interests and risk criteria or any other filters. This enables you to evaluate portfolio performance and receive timely notifications on advisory changes.

Additionally, the ETF Zone showcases all Upturn 3+ Star Rated ETFs, assisting you in identifying top-rated exchange-traded funds for potential investment opportunities.

Instant and Custom Robo Portfolios

Upturn.io empowers investors with Robo-Portfolios, enabling seamless stock and ETF discovery through AI-driven portfolio creation.

With Instant Robo-Portfolios, users can generate optimized portfolios in seconds (usually less than a minute) based on their custom filters, leveraging Upturn’s advanced simulations.

Behind the scenes, for Instant robo-portfolios, Upturn enhances portfolio creation by generating 500 simulated portfolios, each comprising randomly selected stocks/ ETFs based on user-defined filters. The platform then identifies the portfolio with the strongest historical performance and highest Sharpe Ratio. This random selection process ensures that, given a sufficiently diverse pool of stocks and ETFs curated through the filter, each simulation yields a unique portfolio, even when applying the same filters.

For a more tailored approach, Custom Robo-Portfolios allow users to define filters, handpick stocks or ETFs, and track their investments effortlessly.

Every Robo-Portfolio on Upturn is assigned an Upturn Star Rating, reflecting its historical cumulative returns and Sharpe ratios based on investments made following Upturn's advisories. This rating provides investors with a clear understanding of the portfolio's past performance and risk-adjusted returns.

With Robo-Portfolios, investors can experiment with multiple strategies, refine their holdings, and compare their portfolio's performance against the SPY index, utilizing Upturn's advisories. The platform offers feedback on portfolio composition, such as diversification levels (e.g., holding fewer than 12 stocks may indicate less diversification) and the inclusion of higher-rated Upturn stocks. Additionally, it displays current BUY and SELL advisories for each asset within the Robo-Portfolio, enabling data-backed investment decisions with confidence.

Robo Portfolio Performance Metrics

Each Robo Portfolio includes a Comprehensive performance metrics, including cumulative returns benchmarked against the S&P 500, Sharpe Ratio, annual returns, and volatility, offer deep insights into portfolio effectiveness.

Robo-Portfolios on Upturn.io are evaluated using multiple key metrics to help investors make informed decisions.

The Summary provides a high-level overview, including factors such as the number of stocks in the portfolio and the presence of higher-rated Upturn stocks.

To illustrate potential gains, Upturn.io simulates a hypothetical investment of $1.0 in an equal-weighted Robo-Portfolio, tracking performance based on Upturn’s BUY and SELL advisories. This is then compared to the same investment in SPY, providing a tangible measure of portfolio strength.

Beyond cumulative returns, additional portfolio performance metrics include the Sharpe Ratio, Annual Returns, Annual Volatility, and more.

Users can access detailed explanations of these metrics by clicking the help button next to Performance Metrics or in the Description of terms below.

From Search to Success: Search powered by AI

Upturn simplifies and enhances your investment journey with robust search functionalities and personalized tools.

Efficient Search Capabilities Effortlessly locate stocks and ETFs by entering their names or symbols into the search bar. For batch searches, input multiple symbols separated by commas (e.g., "AAPL,TSLA,AMZN,MSFT") to view collective advisories. Moreover, Upturn's AI-driven natural language processing allows searches based on themes or sectors, such as "Apparel retailers", "CPU manufacturers", "Lithium companies" or "ETFs on cleantech" delivering relevant results tailored to your interests.

Interactive Stock and ETF Exploration Clicking on any stock or ETF card reveals detailed information and performance charts. Utilize the "Add to List" feature to seamlessly incorporate assets into your personalized "Watchlist" or any "Robo-Portfolio," facilitating organized tracking and management of your investments.

Customizable Robo-Portfolios Upturn empowers you to create Robo-Portfolios from search results, enabling the construction of diversified portfolios aligned with your investment strategies. This feature supports both instant and customized portfolio creation, allowing for tailored investment approaches.

Experience a streamlined and intelligent investment process with Upturn.io, designed to cater to both novice and seasoned investors.

Smarter Investment Discovery with Upturn Filters

Powerful Search & Filtering Upturn enhances your investment research with advanced filtering options, allowing you to tailor searches for stocks and ETFs based on specific criteria. Whether you're looking for high-performing assets, market trends, or personalized investment opportunities, Upturn makes it simple and effective.

Personalized Investment Filters Easily refine your search by filtering stocks/ETFs with a "BUY" advisory or an Upturn 4+ Star rating. Additional filters allow you to sort by asset type (stocks or ETFs), market capitalization (e.g., large-cap), and Upturn advisory performance (historical accuracy of recommendations). You can also assess Upturn stock performance (how stocks reacted to Upturn's BUY and SELL signals), company size, daily trade volume, or whether an asset is currently labeled as a Top Performer or Top Pick.

Risk Awareness & Enhanced Insights To help investors assess risk effectively, Upturn incorporates risk annotations, categorizing filter selection as "low-risk" "medium-risk" or "high-risk" These labels consider factors like company size, trade volume, and historical advisory performance, providing an extra layer of transparency for decision-making.

Confident, Data-Driven Investing By leveraging Upturn's robust search and filtering capabilities, investors can efficiently discover, analyze, and act on investment opportunities that align with their financial goals and risk preferences.

Upturn Market Overview

Upturn's dashboard features a Market Overview card displaying the total number of Upturn 3+ Star-rated, Large-cap or Mid-cap stocks, along with those currently holding a BUY recommendation.

Investors can easily access filtered lists by clicking on these numbers, streamlining the process of identifying top-rated investment opportunities.

Descriptions of terms and metrics

The following section describes performance metrics and terms used

Note: Please see the Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations for assumptions and considerations used in the simulation (hypothetical) returns and ratios.

Upturn Star Rating

5 Star Rating Outstanding - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, have historically outperformed the market, making them a top-tier choice for investors.

4 Star Rating Above Average - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, frequently surpass the market, reflecting reliable and trustworthy advice.

3 Star Rating Moderate - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, typically align with the market average, offering steady but unremarkable returns.

2 Star Rating Below Average - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, often underperform the market, warranting careful consideration before investing.

1 Star Rating Not Recommended - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

BUY Advisory (strong/regular/weak)

“BUY” advisory indicates the stock or ETF could be in an Upturn or upwards trending based on the AI/ML and Quantitative analysis. The “BUY” advisory is often annotated such as

• STRONG BUY
• REGULAR BUY
• WEAK BUY

All of these indicate a “buy” advisory based on technical analysis (AI/ML and Quantitative) but shows different degree of trends or factors which are positively influencing the “buy” advisory. For instance, “strong buy” has more trends or factors in the algorithm showing positive “buy” trend compared to “regular buy” and has much lower trends or factors suggesting “buy” for “weak buy”.

Also, if the Stock or ETF has Upturn star rating of 1 or 2, the “BUY” advisory is shown as “Consider higher Upturn Star rating”

PASS Advisory

A “pass” advisory indicates that there are no upturns or upward trends seen in the stock or ETF to recommend a “buy” for now and hence the stock or ETF could be passed for now.

SELL Advisory

When the technical analysis (AI/ML and Quantitative) doesn’t show any continued positive trends or factors to further influence the upward movement of the Stock or the ETF, the BUY advisory is updated to a SELL advisory.

Stocks and Stocks Chart (Simulated)

Following are terms and its definitions and assumptions used when showing the Company’s historic recommendations.

Note: Please see the Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations for assumptions and considerations used in the simulation (hypothetical) returns and ratios.

Historic Profits

This is simulated compounded returns expressed in percentage Compounded means, in the simulation, the assumption is, the user gained or lost x% returns on its initial principal invested, that entire principal plus (or minus) the returns was reinvested in the next set of recommendations. Returns can be negative or positive. Historic Profits also include Unrealized profits which is described below.

Unrealized gains or profits, also known as "paper profits," represent the increase in value of assets that have not yet been sold. In the context of Upturn.io, these gains occur when a "BUY" recommendation has been issued for a stock or ETF, but no corresponding "SELL" recommendation has been made. Consequently, the asset remains in a "BUY" status, and any potential profits or losses are considered unrealized until a "SELL" recommendation is executed. In simulation scenarios, this means the asset is held without being sold, so the returns are not yet realized.

The compounded profits takes into consideration the simulation of having reinvested the principal and returns for all the recommendations of the Company for the stock since the simulation start date, which is over 2.5 years. The date was chosen to ensure that the simulation data spans more than 2 years and is measured as a percentage. The profits can be positive in case of a profit or could be negative in case of a loss. (The disclosures below provides details about the assumptions while calculating returns in a simulated transaction) [1]

Upturn Advisory Performance

This is a measure of how well Upturn advisory performed for this stock based on simulation. That is, what percentage of times when Upturn Advisory recommended a “BUY” and a corresponding “SELL” did the simulation show a profit. ​

Stock Returns Performance

This is a measure of how well the stock returns performed with respect to Upturn advisory for the stock based on simulation. That is, what is the cumulative returns for the stock in terms of percentage when Upturn Advisory recommended a “BUY” and a corresponding “SELL”. ​

SELL Advisory (Profit)

This is for a “SELL” recommendation in the simulation of Upturn recommendations starting over 2.5 years, for the stock which ended in a profit (i.e., positive return).

Note: Refer to Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations which goes into assumptions made in simulation.

SELL Advisory (Loss)

This is for a “SELL” recommendation in the simulation of the Company’s recommendations starting over 2.5 years​, for the stock which ended in a loss or negative returns.

Note: Refer to Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations which goes into assumptions made in simulation

Robo-Portfolio performance simulation charts and ratios

Upturn.io's Robo-Portfolio simulations allocate equal weight to each stock, calculating daily returns over approximately the past 2.5 years. The simulations track performance as if executing "BUY" or "SELL" actions based on the platform's advisories. Please review the disclosures for assumptions and considerations regarding simulated or hypothetical returns and ratios. This section details the various performance metrics and terms utilized.

Note: Please read the Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations

Upturn uses Python Empyrical library (or its close implementation)

https://github.com/quantopian/empyrical for the calculation of key ratios and performance metrics of the Portfolio simulation.

Cumulative Returns

This is simulated compounded returns of the Robo-portfolio expressed in percentage. When this is shown in charts, the Robo-Portfolio starts with a principal value of 1 (normalized value for charts) and simulates how it performed if executed "BUY" and "SELL" based on Upturn Advisory on each of the stocks (with the assumptions as discussed in Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations) over the last 2.5 years. The charts also compare these cumulative returns with SPY (S&P SPDR 500 ETF). You can zoom into the performance starting from 1 year ago or 3 months ago

Annualized Returns

This is the mean annual growth rate of returns of the equally weighted Robo Portfolio as per simulation

Sharpe Ratio

This is the risk adjusted return of the equally weighted Robo Portfolio as per simulation

Annual Volatility

This is a measure of risk in annualized term. It indicates how far the prices could swing in either direction from the average value

Alpha

This is the measure of the equally weighted simulated Robo Portfolio’s ability to beat the market or how does it compares to the market (here SPY is used to indicate market)

Beta

Alpha is typically measured along with beta which measures the overall market risk of the simulated Robo Portfolio (here SPY is used to indicate market)