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CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)



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Upturn Advisory Summary
04/01/2025: CF (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -17.55% | Avg. Invested days 34 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance ![]() | Stock Returns Performance ![]() |
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Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 13.29B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 11.84 | 1Y Target Price 89.65 |
Price to earnings Ratio 11.84 | 1Y Target Price 89.65 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2959277 | Beta 0.98 | 52 Weeks Range 67.88 - 97.65 | Updated Date 04/2/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 67.88 - 97.65 | Updated Date 04/2/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.51% | Basic EPS (TTM) 6.74 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 20.52% | Operating Margin (TTM) 27.23% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 7.75% | Return on Equity (TTM) 18.5% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 11.84 | Forward PE 13.09 | Enterprise Value 14881124607 | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.24 |
Enterprise Value 14881124607 | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.24 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.51 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 5.27 | Shares Outstanding 166467008 | Shares Floating 167868561 |
Shares Outstanding 166467008 | Shares Floating 167868561 | ||
Percent Insiders 0.7 | Percent Institutions 101.49 |
Analyst Ratings
Rating 3.43 | Target Price 88.99 | Buy 3 | Strong Buy 4 |
Buy 3 | Strong Buy 4 | ||
Hold 12 | Sell 2 | Strong Sell - | |
Strong Sell - |
Upturn AI SWOT
CF Industries Holdings Inc

Company Overview
History and Background
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. was formed in 1946 as a cooperative serving regional agricultural cooperatives. It evolved from a producer-owned cooperative to a publicly traded company via an initial public offering in 2005. It has grown through acquisitions and expansions, focusing on nitrogen and hydrogen products.
Core Business Areas
- Nitrogen Fertilizer: Production and distribution of nitrogen fertilizers, primarily ammonia, urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) solutions, and ammonium nitrate. These are used by farmers to increase crop yields.
- Hydrogen and Clean Energy: CF Industries is investing in hydrogen and clean energy projects to decarbonize its ammonia production and supply clean ammonia for energy and other applications.
Leadership and Structure
CF Industries is led by Tony Will (President and CEO). The organizational structure is hierarchical with functional departments such as operations, finance, sales, and marketing.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Anhydrous Ammonia (NH3): A primary nitrogen fertilizer source. CF Industries is a major producer in North America. Market share varies regionally; competitors include Nutrien, Yara, and Koch Industries. Difficult to precisely quantify market share without specific regional data, however North American fertilizer market is highly consolidated with the top 4 players accounting for 60-70% market share.
- Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN): A liquid fertilizer solution. CF Industries is a key supplier in North America. Competitors include Nutrien and other regional producers.
- Granular Urea: A solid nitrogen fertilizer. CF Industries produces and distributes granular urea globally. Competitors include producers in the Middle East and Asia.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The nitrogen fertilizer industry is driven by global agricultural demand, crop prices, weather patterns, and government policies. It's a cyclical industry influenced by supply and demand dynamics. The market is experiencing increased focus on sustainable practices and lower-carbon production methods.
Positioning
CF Industries is one of the largest nitrogen fertilizer producers globally, with a strong presence in North America. Its competitive advantages include integrated production facilities, a vast distribution network, and investments in low-carbon ammonia production.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The global nitrogen fertilizer market is estimated at over $80 billion. CF Industries' TAM is influenced by global agricultural demand and its production capacity in key markets like North America. The company is well-positioned to capture a significant portion of this TAM, particularly as it invests in clean ammonia production.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Large-scale production capacity
- Integrated production and distribution network
- Strong presence in North America
- Investments in low-carbon ammonia production
- Access to natural gas as feedstock
Weaknesses
- Exposure to cyclical commodity prices
- Dependence on natural gas prices
- Geographic concentration in North America
- Environmental regulations
- Operational risks associated with large-scale chemical production
Opportunities
- Growing global population and food demand
- Increasing adoption of precision agriculture
- Expansion into new geographic markets
- Development of new nitrogen fertilizer products
- Government incentives for low-carbon ammonia production
Threats
- Fluctuations in natural gas prices
- Oversupply of nitrogen fertilizer
- Increased competition from low-cost producers
- Changing agricultural practices
- Environmental regulations and carbon taxes
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- NTR
- MOS
- YARA.OL
Competitive Landscape
CF Industries competes primarily on production scale, cost efficiency, and distribution network. Its focus on low-carbon ammonia production provides a competitive advantage as sustainability becomes increasingly important. Nutrien has significant market share through its retail network; other competitors offer lower costs of production or diversification.
Major Acquisitions
Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P.
- Year: 2010
- Acquisition Price (USD millions): 7250
- Strategic Rationale: Increased CF Industries' nitrogen production capacity and strengthened its position in the North American nitrogen fertilizer market.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Requires detailed historical financial feed to generate
Future Projections: Analyst estimates vary based on market conditions and company performance.
Recent Initiatives: CF Industries is investing heavily in green and blue ammonia projects to reduce its carbon footprint and capitalize on the growing demand for clean energy. It is also optimizing its existing production facilities to improve efficiency.
Summary
CF Industries is a major player in the nitrogen fertilizer industry, benefiting from its large scale and integrated operations. Its investments in low-carbon ammonia production position it well for future growth amid increasing environmental concerns. However, the company remains exposed to commodity price volatility and competition from lower-cost producers. It is also facing rising gas prices which is a major input. The company needs to actively monitor its feedstock costs to minimize impacts to financial statements.
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MOS

The Mosaic Company



MOS

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NTR

Nutrien Ltd



NTR

Nutrien Ltd
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company filings
- Industry reports
- Analyst estimates
Disclaimers:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions and company performance can change rapidly.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About CF Industries Holdings Inc
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters Northbrook, IL, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2005-08-11 | President, CEO & Director Mr. W. Anthony Will | ||
Sector Basic Materials | Industry Agricultural Inputs | Full time employees 2800 | Website https://www.cfindustries.com |
Full time employees 2800 | Website https://www.cfindustries.com |
CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities in North America, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products. It primarily serves cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.
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