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CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)

Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
$79.59
Delayed price
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PASS
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)​
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)​
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • Pass (Skip investing)
Upturn Stock infoUpturn Stock info Stock price based on last close
*as per simulation
(see disclosures)
Time period over
  • ALL
  • YEAR
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Upturn Advisory Summary

04/01/2025: CF (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Upturn Star Rating

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Not Recommended Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

AI Based Fundamental Rating

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Below Average Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, often underperform the market, warranting careful consideration before investing.

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit -17.55%
Avg. Invested days 34
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Star Rating Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance 2.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Profits based on simulation
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Last Close 04/01/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Large-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 13.29B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 11.84
1Y Target Price 89.65
Price to earnings Ratio 11.84
1Y Target Price 89.65
Volume (30-day avg) 2959277
Beta 0.98
52 Weeks Range 67.88 - 97.65
Updated Date 04/2/2025
52 Weeks Range 67.88 - 97.65
Updated Date 04/2/2025
Dividends yield (FY) 2.51%
Basic EPS (TTM) 6.74

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Revenue by Geography

Geography revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date -
When -
Estimate -
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin 20.52%
Operating Margin (TTM) 27.23%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 7.75%
Return on Equity (TTM) 18.5%

Valuation

Trailing PE 11.84
Forward PE 13.09
Enterprise Value 14881124607
Price to Sales(TTM) 2.24
Enterprise Value 14881124607
Price to Sales(TTM) 2.24
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.51
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 5.27
Shares Outstanding 166467008
Shares Floating 167868561
Shares Outstanding 166467008
Shares Floating 167868561
Percent Insiders 0.7
Percent Institutions 101.49

Analyst Ratings

Rating 3.43
Target Price 88.99
Buy 3
Strong Buy 4
Buy 3
Strong Buy 4
Hold 12
Sell 2
Strong Sell -
Strong Sell -

ai summary icon Upturn AI SWOT

CF Industries Holdings Inc

stock logo

Company Overview

overview logo History and Background

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. was formed in 1946 as a cooperative serving regional agricultural cooperatives. It evolved from a producer-owned cooperative to a publicly traded company via an initial public offering in 2005. It has grown through acquisitions and expansions, focusing on nitrogen and hydrogen products.

business area logo Core Business Areas

  • Nitrogen Fertilizer: Production and distribution of nitrogen fertilizers, primarily ammonia, urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) solutions, and ammonium nitrate. These are used by farmers to increase crop yields.
  • Hydrogen and Clean Energy: CF Industries is investing in hydrogen and clean energy projects to decarbonize its ammonia production and supply clean ammonia for energy and other applications.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

CF Industries is led by Tony Will (President and CEO). The organizational structure is hierarchical with functional departments such as operations, finance, sales, and marketing.

Top Products and Market Share

overview logo Key Offerings

  • Anhydrous Ammonia (NH3): A primary nitrogen fertilizer source. CF Industries is a major producer in North America. Market share varies regionally; competitors include Nutrien, Yara, and Koch Industries. Difficult to precisely quantify market share without specific regional data, however North American fertilizer market is highly consolidated with the top 4 players accounting for 60-70% market share.
  • Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN): A liquid fertilizer solution. CF Industries is a key supplier in North America. Competitors include Nutrien and other regional producers.
  • Granular Urea: A solid nitrogen fertilizer. CF Industries produces and distributes granular urea globally. Competitors include producers in the Middle East and Asia.

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The nitrogen fertilizer industry is driven by global agricultural demand, crop prices, weather patterns, and government policies. It's a cyclical industry influenced by supply and demand dynamics. The market is experiencing increased focus on sustainable practices and lower-carbon production methods.

Positioning

CF Industries is one of the largest nitrogen fertilizer producers globally, with a strong presence in North America. Its competitive advantages include integrated production facilities, a vast distribution network, and investments in low-carbon ammonia production.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The global nitrogen fertilizer market is estimated at over $80 billion. CF Industries' TAM is influenced by global agricultural demand and its production capacity in key markets like North America. The company is well-positioned to capture a significant portion of this TAM, particularly as it invests in clean ammonia production.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Large-scale production capacity
  • Integrated production and distribution network
  • Strong presence in North America
  • Investments in low-carbon ammonia production
  • Access to natural gas as feedstock

Weaknesses

  • Exposure to cyclical commodity prices
  • Dependence on natural gas prices
  • Geographic concentration in North America
  • Environmental regulations
  • Operational risks associated with large-scale chemical production

Opportunities

  • Growing global population and food demand
  • Increasing adoption of precision agriculture
  • Expansion into new geographic markets
  • Development of new nitrogen fertilizer products
  • Government incentives for low-carbon ammonia production

Threats

  • Fluctuations in natural gas prices
  • Oversupply of nitrogen fertilizer
  • Increased competition from low-cost producers
  • Changing agricultural practices
  • Environmental regulations and carbon taxes

Competitors and Market Share

competitor logo Key Competitors

  • NTR
  • MOS
  • YARA.OL

Competitive Landscape

CF Industries competes primarily on production scale, cost efficiency, and distribution network. Its focus on low-carbon ammonia production provides a competitive advantage as sustainability becomes increasingly important. Nutrien has significant market share through its retail network; other competitors offer lower costs of production or diversification.

Major Acquisitions

Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P.

  • Year: 2010
  • Acquisition Price (USD millions): 7250
  • Strategic Rationale: Increased CF Industries' nitrogen production capacity and strengthened its position in the North American nitrogen fertilizer market.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: Requires detailed historical financial feed to generate

Future Projections: Analyst estimates vary based on market conditions and company performance.

Recent Initiatives: CF Industries is investing heavily in green and blue ammonia projects to reduce its carbon footprint and capitalize on the growing demand for clean energy. It is also optimizing its existing production facilities to improve efficiency.

Summary

CF Industries is a major player in the nitrogen fertilizer industry, benefiting from its large scale and integrated operations. Its investments in low-carbon ammonia production position it well for future growth amid increasing environmental concerns. However, the company remains exposed to commodity price volatility and competition from lower-cost producers. It is also facing rising gas prices which is a major input. The company needs to actively monitor its feedstock costs to minimize impacts to financial statements.

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Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • Company filings
  • Industry reports
  • Analyst estimates

Disclaimers:

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions and company performance can change rapidly.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.

About CF Industries Holdings Inc

Exchange NYSE
Headquaters Northbrook, IL, United States
IPO Launch date 2005-08-11
President, CEO & Director Mr. W. Anthony Will
Sector Basic Materials
Industry Agricultural Inputs
Full time employees 2800
Full time employees 2800

CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities in North America, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products. It primarily serves cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.

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