ZTO official logo ZTO
ZTO 1-star rating from Upturn Advisory
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) company logo

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) 1-star rating from Upturn Advisory
$21.7
Last Close (24-hour delay)
Profit since last BUY5.65%
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Upturn Advisory Summary

01/09/2026: ZTO (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.

Upturn Star Rating

Upturn 1 star rating for performance

Not Recommended Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

Number of Analysts

4 star rating from financial analysts

21 Analysts rated it

Well-followed company, solid analyst reports, reliable data for confident investing.

1 Year Target Price $23.84

1 Year Target Price $23.84

Analysts Price Target For last 52 week
$23.84 Target price
52w Low $15.77
Current$21.7
52w High $22.09

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit -4.05%
Avg. Invested days 35
Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating
Upturn Star Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance icon 3.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance icon 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation icon Profits based on simulation
Upturn last close icon Last Close 01/09/2026
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Key Highlights

Company Size Large-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 16.78B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 13.76
1Y Target Price 23.84
Price to earnings Ratio 13.76
1Y Target Price 23.84
Volume (30-day avg) 21
Beta -0.2
52 Weeks Range 15.77 - 22.09
Updated Date 01/8/2026
52 Weeks Range 15.77 - 22.09
Updated Date 01/8/2026
Dividends yield (FY) 3.05%
Basic EPS (TTM) 1.55

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

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Earnings Date

Report Date -
When -
Estimate -
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin 18.6%
Operating Margin (TTM) 20.27%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 7.32%
Return on Equity (TTM) 14.21%

Valuation

Trailing PE 13.76
Forward PE 13
Enterprise Value 15296102096
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.35
Enterprise Value 15296102096
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.35
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.25
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 9.25
Shares Outstanding 580770388
Shares Floating 403636756
Shares Outstanding 580770388
Shares Floating 403636756
Percent Insiders 2.4
Percent Institutions 12.63

Icon representing Upturn AI-generated SWOT analysis summary Upturn AI SWOT

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc(ZTO) company logo displayed in Upturn AI summary

Company Overview

Company history and background logo History and Background

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. was founded in 2007 by Lai Meisong. It has rapidly grown to become one of China's largest express delivery companies. Key milestones include its NYSE listing in 2016 and subsequent expansion into a comprehensive logistics service provider. The company has focused on building an asset-light, technology-driven franchise leveraging a network of independent franchisee partners.

Company business area logo Core Business Areas

  • Express Delivery Services: This is ZTO's primary business, offering a wide range of express delivery services across China, including parcel delivery, last-mile delivery, and fulfillment services. They utilize an extensive network of sorting centers and delivery stations.
  • Value-Added Services: Beyond core delivery, ZTO offers other logistics-related services such as freight forwarding, supply chain management, and cold chain logistics, catering to a broader range of customer needs.
  • Logistics Technology and Solutions: The company invests heavily in technology to optimize its operations, including route planning, warehouse management systems, and data analytics to enhance efficiency and customer experience.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

ZTO Express is led by its founder and CEO, Lai Meisong. The company operates through a franchise model, which decentralizes operational control to independent partners while maintaining central oversight for technology, branding, and quality standards. This structure allows for rapid scalability and deep market penetration across China.

Top Products and Market Share

Product Key Offerings logo Key Offerings

  • Standard Parcel Delivery: This core service handles the vast majority of e-commerce and general consumer parcels within China. ZTO's extensive network allows for competitive pricing and delivery times. Competitors include SF Express, JD Logistics, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and STO Express. While specific market share for this single product is not usually granularly reported, ZTO is consistently one of the top players by volume.
  • E-commerce Fulfillment Services: ZTO provides warehousing, picking, packing, and last-mile delivery solutions for e-commerce merchants. This service leverages their existing infrastructure to offer integrated supply chain solutions. Competitors include JD Logistics, Cainiao Network (Alibaba), and other third-party logistics providers.
  • Freight Forwarding: This service caters to businesses needing to transport larger volumes of goods, often for longer distances or between different regions. It complements their parcel delivery network by offering a more comprehensive logistics solution. Competitors include traditional freight forwarders and integrated logistics companies.

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The express delivery industry in China is highly competitive and rapidly growing, driven by the massive e-commerce market. Key trends include technological innovation for efficiency, increasing demand for premium services (faster delivery, better tracking), and consolidation within the industry. The focus is shifting towards integrated logistics solutions and sustainability.

Positioning

ZTO Express is a dominant player in the Chinese express delivery market, known for its extensive network, asset-light franchise model, and cost-efficiency. Its competitive advantage lies in its vast reach, ability to handle high volumes, and strong technological capabilities that optimize its partner network. They are particularly strong in serving the booming e-commerce sector.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The TAM for China's express delivery and logistics market is substantial and continues to grow, estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of USD annually. ZTO Express, by virtue of its scale and market penetration, captures a significant portion of this TAM, particularly within the express parcel segment. Their strategy of expanding into value-added services aims to further address a larger portion of the overall logistics market.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Extensive and dense nationwide delivery network through its franchise model.
  • Strong technological infrastructure for operational efficiency and data analytics.
  • Cost-efficient operating model due to its asset-light franchise structure.
  • Significant market share and brand recognition in China's express delivery sector.
  • Scalability and flexibility in adapting to market demand.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on franchisee partners, which can lead to variability in service quality and potential disputes.
  • Intense competition leading to price pressures.
  • Potential for labor issues within the franchisee network.
  • Geopolitical risks and regulatory changes impacting Chinese companies.
  • Limited international presence compared to global logistics giants.

Opportunities

  • Continued growth of China's e-commerce market and cross-border e-commerce.
  • Expansion into higher-margin value-added services like cold chain and freight forwarding.
  • Further integration of technology and automation to enhance efficiency and reduce costs.
  • Potential for strategic acquisitions to expand service offerings or geographic reach.
  • Increasing demand for integrated supply chain solutions.

Threats

  • Intensifying competition from both domestic and international players.
  • Rising labor costs and potential labor shortages.
  • Changes in government regulations and policies impacting the logistics sector.
  • Economic slowdown in China or globally affecting consumer spending and parcel volumes.
  • Technological disruption from new logistics models or platforms.

Competitors and Market Share

Key competitor logo Key Competitors

  • SF Express (SF Holding Co., Ltd.)
  • JD Logistics (JD.com Inc.)
  • STO Express (STO Express Co., Ltd.)
  • YTO Express (YTO Express Group Co., Ltd.)
  • Yunda Express (Yunda Express Co., Ltd.)

Competitive Landscape

ZTO's advantage lies in its vast, cost-effective franchise network and technological prowess. SF Express is known for its premium service and own fleet. JD Logistics benefits from integration with JD.com's e-commerce operations. STO, YTO, and Yunda are also significant players with large networks. ZTO's challenge is to maintain its cost leadership while improving service quality and expanding into higher-value segments.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: ZTO has experienced rapid historical growth, evolving from a startup to a dominant logistics player in China. This growth has been fueled by the exponential rise of e-commerce and the company's strategic expansion of its delivery network and service offerings.

Future Projections: Analyst projections generally forecast continued growth for ZTO Express, driven by the sustained expansion of the Chinese e-commerce market, increasing consumer demand for efficient logistics, and the company's ongoing diversification into value-added services. Growth is expected to be supported by technology investments and network optimization.

Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include strengthening its capabilities in integrated logistics solutions, expanding its cold chain and freight forwarding services, and investing in automation and digital transformation to further enhance operational efficiency and customer experience. The company is also focused on sustainability initiatives within its operations.

Summary

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is a leading logistics provider in China with a strong franchise network and technological capabilities. Its core express delivery business continues to benefit from the booming e-commerce market, leading to consistent revenue and profit growth. The company's strengths lie in its scale, efficiency, and expanding service offerings, but it faces intense competition and potential regulatory shifts. Continued investment in technology and diversification into value-added services are key to its future success, while navigating market dynamics and maintaining quality across its franchise partners remains crucial.

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Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • Company's official filings with the SEC (e.g., 10-K, 10-Q reports)
  • Investor relations presentations and reports
  • Financial news and data providers (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance)
  • Industry research reports on the Chinese logistics market

Disclaimers:

This JSON output is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Data accuracy is based on publicly available information at the time of generation and may not be exhaustive or perfectly up-to-date. Market share data is an estimation based on industry reports and can fluctuate. Investing in the stock market involves risks, and investors should conduct their own due diligence or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Information icon for Upturn AI Summarization accuracy disclaimer AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Information icon for Upturn AI Summarization data freshness disclaimer Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Information icon warning about Upturn AI Fundamental Rating based on potentially old data Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

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About ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc

Exchange NYSE
Headquaters -
IPO Launch date 2016-10-27
Founder, Chairman & CEO Mr. Meisong Lai
Sector Industrials
Industry Integrated Freight & Logistics
Full time employees 24477
Full time employees 24477

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It offers freight forwarding services; and delivery services for e-commerce merchants and traditional merchants, and other express service users. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.