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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)

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Upturn Advisory Summary
01/09/2026: ZTO (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
1 Year Target Price $23.84
1 Year Target Price $23.84
| 14 | Strong Buy |
| 5 | Buy |
| 2 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -4.05% | Avg. Invested days 35 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance | Stock Returns Performance |
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 16.78B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 13.76 | 1Y Target Price 23.84 |
Price to earnings Ratio 13.76 | 1Y Target Price 23.84 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 21 | Beta -0.2 | 52 Weeks Range 15.77 - 22.09 | Updated Date 01/8/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 15.77 - 22.09 | Updated Date 01/8/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 3.05% | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.55 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 18.6% | Operating Margin (TTM) 20.27% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 7.32% | Return on Equity (TTM) 14.21% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 13.76 | Forward PE 13 | Enterprise Value 15296102096 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.35 |
Enterprise Value 15296102096 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.35 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.25 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 9.25 | Shares Outstanding 580770388 | Shares Floating 403636756 |
Shares Outstanding 580770388 | Shares Floating 403636756 | ||
Percent Insiders 2.4 | Percent Institutions 12.63 |
Upturn AI SWOT
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc

Company Overview
History and Background
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. was founded in 2007 by Lai Meisong. It has rapidly grown to become one of China's largest express delivery companies. Key milestones include its NYSE listing in 2016 and subsequent expansion into a comprehensive logistics service provider. The company has focused on building an asset-light, technology-driven franchise leveraging a network of independent franchisee partners.
Core Business Areas
- Express Delivery Services: This is ZTO's primary business, offering a wide range of express delivery services across China, including parcel delivery, last-mile delivery, and fulfillment services. They utilize an extensive network of sorting centers and delivery stations.
- Value-Added Services: Beyond core delivery, ZTO offers other logistics-related services such as freight forwarding, supply chain management, and cold chain logistics, catering to a broader range of customer needs.
- Logistics Technology and Solutions: The company invests heavily in technology to optimize its operations, including route planning, warehouse management systems, and data analytics to enhance efficiency and customer experience.
Leadership and Structure
ZTO Express is led by its founder and CEO, Lai Meisong. The company operates through a franchise model, which decentralizes operational control to independent partners while maintaining central oversight for technology, branding, and quality standards. This structure allows for rapid scalability and deep market penetration across China.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Standard Parcel Delivery: This core service handles the vast majority of e-commerce and general consumer parcels within China. ZTO's extensive network allows for competitive pricing and delivery times. Competitors include SF Express, JD Logistics, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and STO Express. While specific market share for this single product is not usually granularly reported, ZTO is consistently one of the top players by volume.
- E-commerce Fulfillment Services: ZTO provides warehousing, picking, packing, and last-mile delivery solutions for e-commerce merchants. This service leverages their existing infrastructure to offer integrated supply chain solutions. Competitors include JD Logistics, Cainiao Network (Alibaba), and other third-party logistics providers.
- Freight Forwarding: This service caters to businesses needing to transport larger volumes of goods, often for longer distances or between different regions. It complements their parcel delivery network by offering a more comprehensive logistics solution. Competitors include traditional freight forwarders and integrated logistics companies.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The express delivery industry in China is highly competitive and rapidly growing, driven by the massive e-commerce market. Key trends include technological innovation for efficiency, increasing demand for premium services (faster delivery, better tracking), and consolidation within the industry. The focus is shifting towards integrated logistics solutions and sustainability.
Positioning
ZTO Express is a dominant player in the Chinese express delivery market, known for its extensive network, asset-light franchise model, and cost-efficiency. Its competitive advantage lies in its vast reach, ability to handle high volumes, and strong technological capabilities that optimize its partner network. They are particularly strong in serving the booming e-commerce sector.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for China's express delivery and logistics market is substantial and continues to grow, estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of USD annually. ZTO Express, by virtue of its scale and market penetration, captures a significant portion of this TAM, particularly within the express parcel segment. Their strategy of expanding into value-added services aims to further address a larger portion of the overall logistics market.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Extensive and dense nationwide delivery network through its franchise model.
- Strong technological infrastructure for operational efficiency and data analytics.
- Cost-efficient operating model due to its asset-light franchise structure.
- Significant market share and brand recognition in China's express delivery sector.
- Scalability and flexibility in adapting to market demand.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on franchisee partners, which can lead to variability in service quality and potential disputes.
- Intense competition leading to price pressures.
- Potential for labor issues within the franchisee network.
- Geopolitical risks and regulatory changes impacting Chinese companies.
- Limited international presence compared to global logistics giants.
Opportunities
- Continued growth of China's e-commerce market and cross-border e-commerce.
- Expansion into higher-margin value-added services like cold chain and freight forwarding.
- Further integration of technology and automation to enhance efficiency and reduce costs.
- Potential for strategic acquisitions to expand service offerings or geographic reach.
- Increasing demand for integrated supply chain solutions.
Threats
- Intensifying competition from both domestic and international players.
- Rising labor costs and potential labor shortages.
- Changes in government regulations and policies impacting the logistics sector.
- Economic slowdown in China or globally affecting consumer spending and parcel volumes.
- Technological disruption from new logistics models or platforms.
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- SF Express (SF Holding Co., Ltd.)
- JD Logistics (JD.com Inc.)
- STO Express (STO Express Co., Ltd.)
- YTO Express (YTO Express Group Co., Ltd.)
- Yunda Express (Yunda Express Co., Ltd.)
Competitive Landscape
ZTO's advantage lies in its vast, cost-effective franchise network and technological prowess. SF Express is known for its premium service and own fleet. JD Logistics benefits from integration with JD.com's e-commerce operations. STO, YTO, and Yunda are also significant players with large networks. ZTO's challenge is to maintain its cost leadership while improving service quality and expanding into higher-value segments.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: ZTO has experienced rapid historical growth, evolving from a startup to a dominant logistics player in China. This growth has been fueled by the exponential rise of e-commerce and the company's strategic expansion of its delivery network and service offerings.
Future Projections: Analyst projections generally forecast continued growth for ZTO Express, driven by the sustained expansion of the Chinese e-commerce market, increasing consumer demand for efficient logistics, and the company's ongoing diversification into value-added services. Growth is expected to be supported by technology investments and network optimization.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include strengthening its capabilities in integrated logistics solutions, expanding its cold chain and freight forwarding services, and investing in automation and digital transformation to further enhance operational efficiency and customer experience. The company is also focused on sustainability initiatives within its operations.
Summary
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is a leading logistics provider in China with a strong franchise network and technological capabilities. Its core express delivery business continues to benefit from the booming e-commerce market, leading to consistent revenue and profit growth. The company's strengths lie in its scale, efficiency, and expanding service offerings, but it faces intense competition and potential regulatory shifts. Continued investment in technology and diversification into value-added services are key to its future success, while navigating market dynamics and maintaining quality across its franchise partners remains crucial.
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Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company's official filings with the SEC (e.g., 10-K, 10-Q reports)
- Investor relations presentations and reports
- Financial news and data providers (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance)
- Industry research reports on the Chinese logistics market
Disclaimers:
This JSON output is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Data accuracy is based on publicly available information at the time of generation and may not be exhaustive or perfectly up-to-date. Market share data is an estimation based on industry reports and can fluctuate. Investing in the stock market involves risks, and investors should conduct their own due diligence or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters - | ||
IPO Launch date 2016-10-27 | Founder, Chairman & CEO Mr. Meisong Lai | ||
Sector Industrials | Industry Integrated Freight & Logistics | Full time employees 24477 | Website https://www.zto.com |
Full time employees 24477 | Website https://www.zto.com | ||
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It offers freight forwarding services; and delivery services for e-commerce merchants and traditional merchants, and other express service users. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

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