Tellurian Inc (TELL)TELL

Tellurian Inc. Stock Overview

Company Profile:

Detailed history and background: Tellurian Inc. is a US publicly traded company focused on building a natural gas export business headquartered in Houston, Texas. The company was incorporated in Delaware in 2016 and has its primary assets through its subsidiaries Driftwood LNG, Inc., and Tellurian Trading, LLC.

Core business areas: Tellurian's primary business areas include:

• Developing the Driftwood LNG export facility in Louisiana: This facility, when completed, is expected to have a production capacity of 27.6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG.
• Marketing and trading natural gas: The company markets natural gas domestically and internationally and plans to leverage its LNG expertise in trading activities.

Leadership team and corporate structure:

• Executive Chairman: Charif Souki
• President & CEO: Octávio Simões
• Chief Operating Officer: Keith Teague
• Chief Financial Officer: N. Venkatesh
• The Board of Directors comprises experienced individuals from the energy industry with expertise in finance, engineering, and LNG development.

Top Products and Market Share:

Top Products and Offerings:

• Driftwood LNG Project: This is Tellurian's flagship project, a large-scale LNG export facility under construction in Louisiana.
• Natural Gas Marketing and Trading: Tellurian trades natural gas in the US and international markets.

Market Share:

• Global LNG market: Tellurian is not yet a player in the global LNG market as its Driftwood LNG facility is under construction.
• US LNG market: Similarly, Tellurian does not currently have a market share in the US LNG market.
• Natural Gas market: Information on Tellurian's market share in the natural gas market is not readily available.

Comparison with Competitors:

• Major competitors in the global LNG market include Cheniere Energy, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Exxon Mobil.
• In the US LNG market, Cheniere Energy is currently the dominant player, with other competitors including Venture Global LNG, NextDecade Corporation, and Sempra Energy.
• Tellurian's competitive advantage lies in its proposed low-cost LNG production model and its experienced leadership team. However, the company faces competition from established players and needs to successfully execute its construction and commercialization plans.

Total Addressable Market:

The global LNG market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.6% between 2022 and 2027, reaching 425 million tonnes by 2027. The US LNG market is also expected to experience significant growth due to rising demand from Asia and Europe. This presents a substantial market opportunity for Tellurian.

Financial Performance:

Recent Financial Statements:

• Revenue: Tellurian has not yet generated significant revenue as it is in the development stage. In 2022, the company reported revenue of $1.2 million.
• Net Income: Tellurian has been consistently reporting net losses. In 2022, the company reported a net loss of $226.9 million.
• Profit Margins: Tellurian does not currently have any meaningful profit margins.
• Earnings per Share (EPS): Due to consistent losses, Tellurian does not have a positive EPS.

Year-over-Year Performance: Tellurian is a relatively young company, making year-over-year comparisons challenging.

Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Health: Tellurian has a limited operating history and has relied on external financing to fund its operations. As of December 31, 2022, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $300.4 million and total debt of $1.3 billion.

Dividends and Shareholder Returns:

• Dividend History: Tellurian has not paid any dividends to date.
• Shareholder Returns: Tellurian's stock price has experienced significant volatility since its IPO in 2019. The stock price declined from an all-time high of $32.35 in June 2022 to $4.20 as of October 26, 2023.

Growth Trajectory:

Historical Growth: Tellurian is still in its early stages of development, making historical growth analysis limited.

Future Growth Projections:

• The company's future growth is highly dependent on the successful execution of the Driftwood LNG project.
• Tellurian projects that the Driftwood LNG project will generate significant revenue and earnings once operational.
• However, the company faces risks associated with construction delays, cost overruns, and securing financing.

Market Dynamics:

Industry Overview: The LNG industry is experiencing strong growth driven by rising global demand for cleaner-burning fuels.

Demand-Supply Scenario:

• The global LNG market is currently experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, leading to higher prices.
• However, new LNG projects coming online in the coming years are expected to ease the supply constraints.

Technological Advancements:

• Technological advancements are continuously improving LNG production efficiency and reducing costs.
• Tellurian's proposed low-cost LNG production model could give the company a competitive advantage.

Market Position and Adaptability:

• Tellurian is a new entrant in the LNG market and faces competition from established players.
• The company's success will depend on its ability to execute its projects efficiently and adapt to market changes.

Competitors:

Key competitors:

• Cheniere Energy (LNG): Market cap: $32.49 billion
• Shell (SHEL): Market cap: $307.23 billion
• TotalEnergies (TTE): Market cap: $144.53 billion
• Exxon Mobil (XOM): Market cap: $422.45 billion
• Venture Global LNG (VG): Market cap: $10.33 billion
• NextDecade Corporation (NEXT): Market cap: $2.32 billion
• Sempra Energy (SRE): Market cap: $25.22 billion

Competitive Advantages:

• Tellurian's proposed low-cost LNG production model could give the company a competitive advantage.
• Experienced leadership team with a proven track record in the LNG industry.

Competitive Disadvantages:

• New entrant in the market with no operating history.
• Significant execution risk associated with the Driftwood LNG project.

Potential Challenges and Opportunities:

Key Challenges:

• Execution risk associated with the Driftwood LNG project.
• Securing financing for the project.
• Competition from established players in the LNG market.
• Volatility in natural gas prices.

Potential Opportunities:

• Strong global demand for LNG.
• Rising LNG prices.
• Potential for new markets and partnerships.

Recent Acquisitions (Last 3 Years):

Tellurian Inc. has not made any acquisitions in the last 3 years.

AI-Based Fundamental Rating:

AI-Based Rating: 6 out of 10

Justification:

• The AI-based rating considers various factors, including financial health, market position, and future prospects.
• Tellurian has a strong market position with a promising project pipeline, but its lack of operating history and execution risks are reflected in the rating.
• The company's success will depend on its ability to execute its projects efficiently and adapt to market changes.

Sources and Disclaimers:

Sources:

• Tellurian Inc. website
• U.S. Energy Information Administration
• S&P Global Market Intelligence
• Reuters
• Bloomberg

Disclaimer:

This information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. It is essential to conduct your research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.