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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)



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Upturn Advisory Summary
04/01/2025: CMG (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 28.73% | Avg. Invested days 51 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance ![]() | Stock Returns Performance ![]() |
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Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 70.50B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 46.86 | 1Y Target Price 64.35 |
Price to earnings Ratio 46.86 | 1Y Target Price 64.35 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 13955494 | Beta 1.27 | 52 Weeks Range 47.55 - 69.26 | Updated Date 04/2/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 47.55 - 69.26 | Updated Date 04/2/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.11 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 13.56% | Operating Margin (TTM) 14.99% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 14.16% | Return on Equity (TTM) 45.67% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 46.86 | Forward PE 40.32 | Enterprise Value 73147965790 | Price to Sales(TTM) 6.23 |
Enterprise Value 73147965790 | Price to Sales(TTM) 6.23 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 6.47 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 31.53 | Shares Outstanding 1355340032 | Shares Floating 1344846692 |
Shares Outstanding 1355340032 | Shares Floating 1344846692 | ||
Percent Insiders 0.7 | Percent Institutions 88.14 |
Analyst Ratings
Rating 4.23 | Target Price 65.9 | Buy 3 | Strong Buy 21 |
Buy 3 | Strong Buy 21 | ||
Hold 10 | Sell - | Strong Sell 1 | |
Strong Sell 1 |
Upturn AI SWOT
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Company Overview
History and Background
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. was founded in 1993 by Steve Ells in Denver, Colorado. Initially focused on high-quality, responsibly sourced ingredients, Chipotle rapidly expanded, becoming a publicly traded company in 2006. Significant milestones include menu innovation, expansion into new markets, and overcoming food safety challenges.
Core Business Areas
- Restaurant Operations: Chipotle operates and manages fast-casual restaurants serving customizable Mexican cuisine, including burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads.
Leadership and Structure
Brian Niccol serves as the Chairman and CEO. The organizational structure is based on functional departments, including operations, marketing, finance, and supply chain, with regional managers overseeing restaurant operations.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Burritos: Customizable burritos are a core offering, allowing customers to choose their fillings. Competitors include Qdoba, Moe's Southwest Grill, and other fast-casual Mexican restaurants. Limited market share data available per specific product; however, burrito market TAM is significant within the broader fast-casual sector.
- Bowls: Similar to burritos but served in a bowl format, catering to health-conscious consumers. Competitors are the same as burritos, but extend to healthier options across the wider restaurant landscape. Limited market share data.
- Tacos: Tacos are another customizable menu item. Competitors mirror those of burritos and bowls. Limited market share data.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The fast-casual restaurant industry is characterized by high competition, evolving consumer preferences, and a focus on convenience and quality. Growth is driven by health trends, digital ordering, and delivery services.
Positioning
Chipotle positions itself as a leader in the fast-casual sector, emphasizing fresh, sustainably sourced ingredients. Its competitive advantages include brand recognition, a loyal customer base, and a commitment to ethical sourcing.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The fast-casual restaurant market is estimated at several hundred billion USD globally. Chipotle is positioned to capture a significant portion of this TAM through expansion, menu innovation, and digital strategies.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong brand recognition
- Loyal customer base
- Focus on fresh ingredients
- Efficient operations
- Digital innovation
Weaknesses
- Past food safety issues impact brand image
- Relatively high prices compared to competitors
- Menu limitations
- Dependence on a single cuisine type
- Vulnerability to supply chain disruptions
Opportunities
- Menu expansion with new ingredients and cuisines
- International expansion
- Increased digital ordering and delivery
- Loyalty program enhancements
- Partnerships with complementary businesses
Threats
- Intense competition in the fast-casual sector
- Rising labor and food costs
- Changing consumer preferences
- Economic downturns
- Potential for future food safety incidents
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- YUM (YUM)
- WENDYS (WEN)
- MCDONALDS (MCD)
Competitive Landscape
Chipotle differentiates itself through fresh ingredients and customizable options, but faces competition from larger chains with broader menus and lower prices. Its smaller scale presents both advantages (agility) and disadvantages (less marketing power).
Major Acquisitions
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Chipotle has experienced significant revenue growth over the past decade, driven by new restaurant openings and same-store sales increases.
Future Projections: Analyst estimates project continued revenue growth, driven by expansion, digital initiatives, and menu innovation.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include menu innovation (e.g., carne asada), expansion of digital ordering and delivery, and restaurant redesigns to improve efficiency.
Summary
Chipotle is a strong brand with a loyal following, but it faces challenges in a highly competitive market. Its focus on fresh ingredients and digital innovation is working well. However, the company needs to address food safety concerns, manage costs, and adapt to evolving consumer preferences.
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Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company SEC Filings (10-K, 10-Q)
- Analyst Reports
- Industry Reports
- Market Research Data
Disclaimers:
The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on thorough research and consultation with a qualified financial advisor. Market share data are estimates and may vary.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters Newport Beach, CA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2006-01-26 | CEO & Director Mr. Scott Boatwright | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 130504 | Website https://www.chipotle.com |
Full time employees 130504 | Website https://www.chipotle.com |
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages through offering burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as lifestyle bowls, kids's meal, chips, sides, and drinks. The company also provides delivery and related services its app and website. It has operations in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Dubai, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
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