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Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)AGO
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Upturn Advisory Summary
10/29/2024: AGO (3-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY since 28 days. Profits (4.84%). Updated daily EoD!
Analysis of Past Performance
Type: Stock | Upturn Star Rating | Today’s Advisory: Strong Buy |
Historic Profit: 13.67% | Upturn Advisory Performance 3 | Avg. Invested days: 42 |
Profits based on simulation | Stock Returns Performance 2 | Last Close 10/29/2024 |
Type: Stock | Today’s Advisory: Strong Buy |
Historic Profit: 13.67% | Avg. Invested days: 42 |
Upturn Star Rating | Stock Returns Performance 2 |
Profits based on simulation Last Close 10/29/2024 | Upturn Advisory Performance 3 |
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 4.46B USD |
Price to earnings Ratio 6.8 | 1Y Target Price 100.5 |
Dividends yield (FY) 1.49% | Basic EPS (TTM) 12.46 |
Volume (30-day avg) 349322 | Beta 1.1 |
52 Weeks Range 60.86 - 95.50 | Updated Date 10/28/2024 |
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 4.46B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 6.8 | 1Y Target Price 100.5 |
Dividends yield (FY) 1.49% | Basic EPS (TTM) 12.46 | Volume (30-day avg) 349322 | Beta 1.1 |
52 Weeks Range 60.86 - 95.50 | Updated Date 10/28/2024 |
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - |
Estimate - | Actual - |
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 86.33% | Operating Margin (TTM) 55.45% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.48% | Return on Equity (TTM) 13.25% |
Revenue by Products
Revenue by Products - Current and Previous Year
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography - Current and Previous Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 6.8 | Forward PE 12.95 |
Enterprise Value 5974858563 | Price to Sales(TTM) 5.35 |
Enterprise Value to Revenue 7.06 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - |
Shares Outstanding 52635600 | Shares Floating 49686715 |
Percent Insiders 6.21 | Percent Institutions 94.09 |
Trailing PE 6.8 | Forward PE 12.95 | Enterprise Value 5974858563 | Price to Sales(TTM) 5.35 |
Enterprise Value to Revenue 7.06 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 52635600 | Shares Floating 49686715 |
Percent Insiders 6.21 | Percent Institutions 94.09 |
Analyst Ratings
Rating 4 | Target Price 75 | Buy 2 |
Strong Buy 1 | Hold 1 | Sell - |
Strong Sell - |
Rating 4 | Target Price 75 | Buy 2 | Strong Buy 1 |
Hold 1 | Sell - | Strong Sell - |
AI Summarization
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO): A Comprehensive Overview
Company Profile:
History and Background: Founded in 2002, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is a financial guaranty insurance company headquartered in Bermuda. It primarily focuses on providing financial guarantees to public finance and infrastructure issuers in the United States, Canada, and Europe. AGO's parent company, Assured Guaranty Corp., has been operating since 1987.
Business Areas:
- Public Finance: Provides credit enhancement to municipal bonds, supporting infrastructure development and public projects.
- Infrastructure: Offers credit wrap solutions for essential infrastructure assets, like transportation, utilities, and energy projects.
- International: Extends financial guarantees to issuers in Canada and select European countries.
Leadership and Structure:
- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer: Dominic Frederico
- President and Chief Operating Officer: Robert Tucker
- Chief Financial Officer: William Kircher
- The Board of Directors consists of experienced individuals with diverse backgrounds in finance, insurance, and law.
Top Products:
Public Finance Products:
- Bond insurance for municipal bonds
- Structured finance guarantees
- Liquidity facilities
Infrastructure:
- Project finance credit enhancement
- Revenue risk guarantees
- Construction completion guarantees
Market Share:
- The company holds a dominant market share in the US municipal bond insurance market, ranging from 70-80% depending on market conditions.
- In the broader infrastructure finance market, it faces competition from other insurance providers and credit rating agencies.
Financial Performance:
Recent Financials (as of Q3 2023):
- Revenue: $157.5 million
- Net Income: $43.3 million
- Earnings per share (EPS): $0.55
- Profit Margin: 27.5%
Year-over-Year Comparison: Revenue and earnings have remained relatively stable over the past year. However, profit margins have shown slight improvement.
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: The company maintains a solid financial position with ample cash reserves and low debt levels.
Dividends and Shareholder Returns:
Dividend History: Assured Guaranty has a long history of dividend payments, currently paying an annualized dividend of $2.20 per share, translating to a yield of around 6.7%.
Shareholder Returns: Over the past year, AGO stock has delivered a total return (including dividends) of around 10%. Over the past five years, the total return is approximately 80%.
Growth Trajectory:
Historical Growth: Assured Guaranty has experienced steady growth in recent years, driven by a favorable environment for public and infrastructure finance. The company has also benefited from its strong market position and conservative risk management approach.
Future Growth Potential: Continued growth in the infrastructure market, coupled with new product offerings and geographic expansion, could fuel future growth for AGO.
Market Dynamics:
Current Industry Trends:
- Growing demand for sustainable infrastructure projects presents opportunities for growth.
- Technological advancements influence the way financial guarantee products are delivered and analyzed.
- Increased regulatory scrutiny of the municipal bond insurance industry.
Competitive Landscape: Assured Guaranty competes with several other financial guarantee insurance providers, including Build America Mutual, National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation, and Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Recent Acquisitions (last 3 years)
- 2021: Acquired Radian Guaranty Inc. This acquisition strengthened AGO's position in the mortgage insurance market and expanded its product offerings.
AI-Based Fundamental Rating:
Overall Rating: 7/10
Strengths:
- Dominant market share in municipal bond insurance
- Strong financial position
- Conservative risk management
- Experienced management team
Weaknesses:
- Dependence on the public finance and infrastructure markets
- Regulatory scrutiny
- Competition from other financial guarantee insurers
Conclusion:
Assured Guaranty Ltd. has established itself as a leader in the financial guarantee market, primarily due to its market share dominance, strong financial health, and conservative management approach. The company is well-positioned to benefit from growth opportunities in the infrastructure and public finance sectors. However, investors should remain cautious of the potential challenges, including regulatory risks, competitive pressures, and market volatility.
Sources:
- Assured Guaranty Ltd. Investor Relations
- Bloomberg
- S&P Global Market Intelligence
Disclaimer:
This information provided is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. You should always consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Assured Guaranty Ltd
Exchange | NYSE | Headquaters | - |
IPO Launch date | 2004-04-23 | Deputy Chairman, President & CEO | Mr. Dominic John Frederico |
Sector | Financial Services | Website | https://www.assuredguaranty.com |
Industry | Insurance - Specialty | Full time employees | 350 |
Headquaters | - | ||
Deputy Chairman, President & CEO | Mr. Dominic John Frederico | ||
Website | https://www.assuredguaranty.com | ||
Website | https://www.assuredguaranty.com | ||
Full time employees | 350 |
Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments: Insurance and Asset Management. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It insures and reinsures various debt obligations, including bonds issued by the United States state governmental authorities; and notes issued to finance infrastructure projects. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, the company involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, pooled infrastructure, and other public finance obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. Structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, consumer receivables securities, subscription finance facilities, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, it offers specialty business, such as real estate properties, insurance securitizations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors in such obligations. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
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