Quick Introduction to Upturn features

Upturn Market Indicator

As soon as you log into Upturn, you'll be greeted with a user-friendly dashboard that gives you a real-time view of the US stock market's performance. The dashboard is designed to be a one-stop-shop for investors looking to stay on top of the latest market trends and insights. You can quickly and easily determine whether the market is trending up or down using the bullish and bearish indicators. The Upturn Advisories on the dashboard use AI technology to provide you with real-time insights on which stocks are worth investing in.

The yellow, blue, and red sections of the Upturn Advisories graph offer a quick and easy way to determine whether the market is experiencing a recession, an upbeat trend, or a potential correction. The graph is further superimposed on the S&P 500 price chart, providing an accurate representation of the US market's performance. With Upturn's Adaptive AI technology, you can trust that the advisories you receive are based on the most up-to-date and accurate data available.

The advisories offer personalized investment advice tailored to your risk tolerance and investment goals. The Upturn dashboard is designed with simplicity and ease-of-use in mind, making it easy for even novice investors to stay on top of the market. The AI-powered technology behind Upturn ensures that you're always one step ahead of the competition when it comes to making informed investment decisions. With Upturn, you have access to a wealth of market data and insights, giving you the confidence you need to invest with peace of mind

Upturn 3+ Star stocks/ETFs Curated List

Upturn dashboard also lists a curated card on the top left. This card displays the total number of Upturn 3+ Star-rated stocks and ETFs from the list of stocks and ETFs for which Upturn Advisories are provided. This curated list also provides the number of Upturn 3+ star rated stocks with a BUY recommendation.Users can click on the BUY advisory number to directly access the filter.

This shows all the Upturn 3+ rated stocks and ETFs with a BUY advisory.One can click on the total number of Upturn 3+ rated stocks to access the filter which shows all the Upturn 3+ rated stocks and ETFs.

Today's Top Picks

Upturn's dashboard provides various curated lists of stocks and ETFs that the user can browse through to discover stocks he or she might be interested in investing in.

One such list is Today's top picks. Today’s top picks are all Upturn 4+ Rated stocks or ETFs with a BUY advisory as of today. These stocks have moved more than 4% in the last 3 weeks.

Users can click on “See All” to open a page that lists all of "Today's Top Picks". Users can also click on any stock to open up the chart for the stock.

Upturn's stocks/ETFs Chart

Upturn's chart for stocks/ETFs provides details of the stock such as its “Upturn Star Rating”, “Stock Price”, “Current Advisory based on the Persona ”, “chart” which provides over 2 years of historic “Buy” and “Sell” advisories. The "Buy" recommendation and its corresponding "Sell" recommendation as per Upturn AI are showcased by the vertical grey bars in the chart.The chart also shows the “simulated profit” over the last 2+ years following an Upturn Advisory. It also shows the “average invested days” of all the Buy followed by Sell advisories, “Upturn Advisory Performance” which is a measure of how well the Upturn AI advisory performs in terms of profitable advice count.

That is, this is a measure of how much advice was profitable compared to losses and is based on simulation.Please check the disclosure for the assumptions made in the simulation for the calculation of these metrics. Simulation is directionally correct and various conditions described in the disclosure prevent exact returns when traded in real.

The 'Stock Returns Performance' measures the total profit earned from all the "Buy" and corresponding "Sell" advisories based on simulations.Upturn Star rating takes into account both Upturn Advisory Performance and Stock Returns Performance and how well the stock has been doing recently to come up with a summarized Upturn Star Rating. Users can use this data to identify stocks to invest in.Further, users can also add stocks they find interesting to either a "Watchlist" or any “Robo-Portfolio” using the "Add to List” button using the "Add to List” button.

Top Performers, Watchlist, Robo-Portfolios and ETF Zone

Just like Today’s top picks, the dashboard also provides additional curated lists, some generated by users and some provided by Upturn. A few examples include Watchlist and Robo-Portfolio which are user generated based on their preferences.Users can add all their favorite stocks to follow for Upturn advisories to the “Watchlist”.​

A Robo-Portfolio is a collection of Stocks and ETFs either generated automatically through sampling as in Instant Robo-Portfolios or the user can add the stocks or ETFs they like to group together based on their interests and specific criteria and the user can evaluate the Robo-Portfolio performance and receive notifications when Upturn Advisory changes.We will discuss creating a Robo-Portfolio in a separate tutorial.

Another curated list provided by Upturn is the “Top Performers” which is a list of all Upturn 4+ rated stocks which have had among the highest stock returns performance based on Upturn advisory of BUY and SELL in the last few years.

ETF Zone showcases all Upturn 3+ Star Rated ETFs.

Instant and Custom Robo Portfolios and Portfolio Performance Metrics

To further discover stocks to invest in, users can create Robo-Portfolios which are a collection of stocks or ETFs based on user-provided filters or criteria.One way of creating Robo Portfolios is through an Instant Robo-Portfolio as shown here. The Instant Robo-Portfolios feature also allows users to build a portfolio within seconds, usually 20 to 30 seconds, based on user-provided criteria.

In the backend, Upturn builds 500 simulated portfolios of stocks and ETFs based on user-provided criteria and chooses the portfolio with the most impressive historic performance and Sharpe Ratio among them.Users can also build Custom Robo-Portfolios by using filters to define the collection of stocks or ETFs to choose from and select stocks from this collection to add to the custom Robo-Portfolio or just search for their favorite stocks or ETFs and add them to the list.Users can create as many Robo-Portfolios as they want.

Some of the measures to compare between Robo-Portfolios include Summary, which gives high-level consideration for the Robo-Portfolio such as, including more stocks, higher Upturn rated stocks, and others.Cumulative Returns in the chart show how the Robo-Portfolio performed compared to the Market. "S and P 500" is used here as the benchmark. Cumulative returns can also be compared over different time periods. This considers hypothetically that if a user invested 1000 dollars on this robo-portfolio by investing equal money in all the stocks in the robo-portfolio, that is, an equal-weighted portfolio and buying and selling these stocks based on Upturn Advisories, and then invested 1000 dollars on SPY.

If this investment happened over a 2-year time period or "All", 1-year time period or "Year", 3-month period or "Quarter", and so on, what would the cumulative return be?Along with cumulative returns for this hypothetical investment of 1000 dollars on the Robo-Portfolio and SPY, other commonly considered portfolio metrics include "Sharpe Ratio", "Annual Returns", "Annual Volatility" and others.Users can click on the help button next to Performance Metrics to learn more about these different ratios.

Robo Portfolio Performance Metrics

Users can create as many Robo-Portfolios as they want. Some of the measures to compare between Robo-Portfolios include Summary, which gives high-level consideration for the Robo-Portfolio such as, including more stocks, higher Upturn rated stocks, and others.

Cumulative Returns in the chart show how the Robo-Portfolio performed compared to the Market. "S and P 500" is used here as the benchmark. Cumulative returns can also be compared over different time periods.

This considers hypothetically that if a user invested 1000 dollars on this robo-portfolio by investing equal money in all the stocks in the robo-portfolio, that is, an equal-weighted portfolio and buying and selling these stocks based on Upturn Advisories, and then invested 1000 dollars on SPY. If this investment happened over a 2-year time period or "All", 1-year time period or "Year", 3-month period or "Quarter", and so on, what would the cumulative return be?

Along with cumulative returns for this hypothetical investment of 1000 dollars on the Robo-Portfolio and SPY, other commonly considered portfolio metrics include "Sharpe Ratio", "Annual Returns", "Annual Volatility" and others.

Users can click on the help button next to Performance Metrics to learn more about these different ratios.

Search using filters and Upturn Personas

Upturn makes stocks and ETFs searches simple and powerful through filters. Users can type in any stock name or symbol in the search box above to list all stocks or ETFs starting with those letters.

Clicking on the stock or ETF card opens the stock details and chart.By clicking the "Add to list" button, users can add this stock to their "Watchlist" or any "Robo-Portfolio".Every stock has three personas.

"Quarterly" is the default persona which is an average investment time of 3 months. "Long" personas have an average investment time of more than 3 months, and "Rush" personas have an average investment time of fewer than 6 weeks.

ETFs have only two personas: "Quarterly" and "Long"Upturn uses the "Quarterly" persona as default. Users can click on the stock and choose a different persona by clicking on the persona choices. This will enable them to get an Upturn advisory for a different persona.Additionally, when a user searches for any stocks, a filter card appears on the right.

One can use these filters for stocks or ETFs to identify a list of all stocks that satisfy criteria such as "stocks with a BUY Advisory", "Upturn 4+ Star rated stocks" and so on.Users can also build filters and Robo-Portfolios catering to different personas.

Descriptions of terms and metrics

The following section describes performance metrics and terms used

Note: Please see the Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations for assumptions and considerations used in the simulation (hypothetical) returns and ratios.

Upturn Star Rating

5 Star Rating Outstanding - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, have historically outperformed the market, making them a top-tier choice for investors.

4 Star Rating Above Average - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, frequently surpass the market, reflecting reliable and trustworthy advice.

3 Star Rating Moderate - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, typically align with the market average, offering steady but unremarkable returns.

2 Star Rating Below Average - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, often underperform the market, warranting careful consideration before investing.

1 Star Rating Not Recommended - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

BUY Advisory (strong/regular/weak)

“BUY” advisory indicates the stock or ETF could be in an Upturn or upwards trending based on the AI/ML and Quantitative analysis. The “BUY” advisory is often annotated such as

• STRONG BUY
• REGULAR BUY
• WEAK BUY

All of these indicate a “buy” advisory based on technical analysis (AI/ML and Quantitative) but shows different degree of trends or factors which are positively influencing the “buy” advisory. For instance, “strong buy” has more trends or factors in the algorithm showing positive “buy” trend compared to “regular buy” and has much lower trends or factors suggesting “buy” for “weak buy”.

Also, if the Stock or ETF has Upturn star rating of 1 or 2, the “BUY” advisory is shown as “Consider higher Upturn Star rating”

PASS Advisory

A “pass” advisory indicates that there are no upturns or upward trends seen in the stock or ETF to recommend a “buy” for now and hence the stock or ETF could be passed for now.

SELL Advisory

When the technical analysis (AI/ML and Quantitative) doesn’t show any continued positive trends or factors to further influence the upward movement of the Stock or the ETF, the BUY advisory is updated to a SELL advisory.

Stocks and Stocks Chart (Simulated)

Following are terms and its definitions and assumptions used when showing the Company’s historic recommendations.

Note: Please see the Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations for assumptions and considerations used in the simulation (hypothetical) returns and ratios.

Compounded Profits

This is simulated compounded returns expressed in percentage Compounded means, in the simulation, the assumption is, the user gained or lost x% returns on its initial principal invested, that entire principal plus (or minus) the returns was reinvested in the next set of recommendations. Returns can be negative or positive.

The compounded profits noted in the above chart takes into consideration the simulation of having reinvested the principal and returns for all the recommendations of the Company for that particular persona of the stock since the simulation start date of January 1, 2018, the date is chosen so that simulation data is longer than 2 years and is measured in percentage. The profits can be positive in case of a profit or could be negative in case of a loss. (The disclosures below provides details about the assumptions while calculating returns in a simulated transaction) [1]

Avg Profits (or Average Profits)

This takes the average of all the returns (profits and loss) expressed in a percentage for all the “BUY” recommendations or advisories through the period of the simulation start date of January 1, 2018, till the previous day's close. Some “BUY” recommendations might have a corresponding “SELL” recommendation which is called the “Realized returns” or might not have a “SELL” recommendation yet which is called “Unrealized returns”, i.e., this is calculated by the simulation which includes transactions which have completed a full “BUY” and “SELL” recommendation (also called realized profits or loss) and transactions which have had a “BUY” recommendation without a corresponding “SELL” yet (also called the unrealized profit or loss) and average it over the total number of such transaction cycles. This is expressed in percentage. In short, this is the compounded profits by number of “BUYs”.

UnRealized (or Unrealized profits)

This is the profit (or loss) expressed as a percentage which has had a “BUY” recommendation without a corresponding “SELL” yet. The stock with this is still a “BUY” recommendation and the “SELL” recommendation could come later point in time. From a simulation point of view, the stock is still bought and has not been sold and hence the returns are not yet realized.

Number of BUYs

This is the number of “SELL” recommendations from Upturn in the simulation starting from January 1, 2018, for the stock with the corresponding persona for its respective “BUY.”

Number of SELLs

This is the profit (or loss) expressed as a percentage which has had a “BUY” recommendation without a corresponding “SELL” yet. The stock with this is still a “BUY” recommendation and the “SELL” recommendation could come later point in time. From a simulation point of view, the stock is still bought and has not been sold and hence the returns are not yet realized.

Upturn Advisory Performance

This is a measure of how well Upturn advisory performed for this stock based on simulation. That is, what percentage of times when Upturn Advisory recommended a “BUY” and a corresponding “SELL” did the simulation show a profit. ​

Stock Returns Performance​

This is a measure of how well the stock returns performed with respect to Upturn advisory for the stock based on simulation. That is, what is the cumulative returns for the stock in terms of percentage when Upturn Advisory recommended a “BUY” and a corresponding “SELL”. ​

SELL (Profit) annotation

This is for a “SELL” recommendation in the simulation of Upturn recommendations starting from January 1, 2018, for the stock which ended in a profit (i.e., positive return).

Note: Refer to Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations which goes into assumptions made in simulation.

SELL (Loss) annotation

This is for a “SELL” recommendation in the simulation of the Company’s recommendations starting from January 1, 2018, for the stock which ended in a loss or negative returns.

Note: Refer to Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations which goes into assumptions made in simulation

Buy Strength

"Buy" and "Sell" recommendations are based on many indicators from Upturn AI. "Buy Strength" is a measure of how strong does all the Buy indicators hold. When all the Buy indicators are true, the "Buy Strength" would be shown as 100%. When some of these Buy indicators are not true and some Sell indicators are true (but not necessary) and not all "Sell" indicator is true which still indicates the stock is still a "Buy" candidate, then the percentage of Buy indicators which are true and reducing it from sell indicators which are true is shown as "Buy Strength".

Robo-Portfolio (and Robo-Portfolio performance simulation charts and ratios)

Following are terms, definitions and assumptions used when showing the Company’s historic recommendations of a Robo-portfolio.

Here a Robo-portfolio or a portfolio is defined as a collection of stocks by a user to closely follow and trade. The user can choose a similar persona in the portfolio or mix and match each stock with different personas within a Robo-portfolio and a Robo-portfolio is not restricted to a specific persona alone.

Note: Please review the disclosures for assumptions and different considerations in a simulation or hypothetical returns and ratios. Keeping those assumptions into consideration, this section describes different performance metrics and terms used. [1]

The Robo-portfolio simulations are built by having each stock equally weighted into the Robo-portfolio (this is implemented by using the percentage of daily returns) [2] and uses the simulation of the portfolio starting from January 1, 2018. The simulation adds stock returns (positive in case of profits or negative in case of loss) to the portfolio as if the stocks executed a "BUY" or "SELL" based on the Company’s recommendations.

Note: Please read the Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations

Upturn uses Python Empyrical library (or its close implementation)

https://github.com/quantopian/empyrical for the calculation of key ratios and performance metrics of the Portfolio simulation.

Cumulative Returns

This is simulated compounded returns expressed as a percentage of the Robo-portfolio. When this is shown in charts, the cumulative returns starts with a principal value of 1 (normalized value for charts) on January 1, 2018, and how if executed the "BUY" and "SELL" on each of the stocks (with the assumptions as discussed in Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations section below) performed. The charts also compare these cumulative returns with SPY (S&P SPDR 500 ETF). Compounded returns means, in the simulation, the assumption is, the user gained or lost x% returns on its initial principal invested in each stock of all the stocks in the portfolio, that entire principal plus (or minus) the returns were reinvested in the next set of recommendations. Returns can be negative or positive.

Annualized Returns

This is the mean annual growth rate of returns of the equally weighted simulated portfolio.

Sharpe Ratio

This is the risk adjusted return of the equally weighted simulated portfolio

Alpha

This is the measure of the equally weighted simulated portfolio’s ability to beat the market or how does it compare to the market (here SPY is used to indicate market)

Beta

Alpha is typically measured along with beta which measures the overall market risk of the portfolio (here SPY is used to indicate market)